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Dow theory
The Dow theory is, among other useful stuff, defining the relationship of DJ industrial index and the transport index to primary bull or bear trend. It’s amazing, but the Dow theory was almost 100%...
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Both eyes on treasuries, third eye on rice
While the fabrics of the world financial system is too complicated for anyone to understand it is sometimes possible to track several bold moves that are likely to lead into equally bold consequences....
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The moving averages in the Bear market
Just a technical observation. I love various oscillators, because they help me to visualize the market internals. This weekly chart (link) shows the relationship between percentage of the S&P 500...
View ArticleMarket economy and China
Please read the fine post from immobilienblasen about price control in China. I want to dig a bit more into this topic. Let start from the basics again. To simplify the things the world economy works...
View ArticleClues in GDP report
I think you can dig a lot of interesting stuff from the GDP report. Let forget all those financial woes for a moment. It’s important what consumer is doing and what the private business is doing. First...
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Kiss this rally goodbye
Let me test my predicting powers. I think today market action was very bearish (and I loaded more puts). First, the very happy rally of +170 points in the Dow was completely reversed to the -12...
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Where is my recession?
1. The expectations are running high The week of April 28 Barron’s ran a cover story “The Bulls are Back”. AND NOW, FOR SOME GOOD NEWS: THE OTHER SHOE isn’t going to drop. After a winter of discontent...
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Critical point for Nasdaq
A little bit of chartism. Look at the Nasdaq: Look how all my moving averages crossed each other in early January at 2500. We are just 20 points below that magical crossover Look how today close is...
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Bernanke the chartreader
Just after I’ve made two posts here and here saying that in the case the stock market does not flop back to bull mode the current level already looks like an exhaustion point after which the bear...
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All eyes on treasuries!
Look at the chart of long-term T-bonds: The last 3 minimums made a very clear neckline for a potential head-and-shoulders, but the chart happily bounced again to start the next run up. Until yesterday....
View ArticleJob numbers explained
Please read this nice post from sudden debt about rotten Friday job report. I’ll just add few comments. As you know after the crash of Communism a lot of manufacturing jobs in US were outsourced to...
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What to do with Countrywide?
The trouble in BOA-CW deal came at interesting moment. As I’ve noted here, the T-bonds are at the most critical juncture in 10 months. Too much complacency (VIX sub 20 for a while) and too much T...
View ArticleStimulus package in full force
I hear that the stimulus package just started in May and its effect will be felt over the next three months. To this I will say c’mon guys, that stimulus package is already in the full force for the...
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Kiss this rally goodbye II or Bernanke call
At April 30 I’ve posted “Kiss this rally goodbye“. Well, I was wrong by 2 days and 18 points in the S&P. I’ve said that the peak will be 1404 at April 30 but now it looks like the real peak was...
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The status of the credit market
You probably know that I like to add the outstanding commercial paper from CP release and banking credit from H8. To some extend it is mixing apples and oranges together but the result looks very...
View ArticleWelcome to the new Wall Street Examiner blog
Hi All! I want to share with you that I was cordially invited to start my own blog at Wall Street Examiner. You probably know this site very well as Russ Winter is contributing there as a blogger and...
View ArticleThe seasonality of carrots
The new post at Wall street Examiner is here, please enjoy! Note: there are RSS feeds to subscribe : http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/feed/ for posts and...
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The anatomy of Consumption
New post is here. Please support the new blog (and Web 2.0) by subscribing to the RSS feed using the button below: It will take you to the list of all major RSS aggregators. Click the logo of your...
View ArticleThe last bubble in the investment desert
Please read new post: The last bubble in the investment desert
View ArticleThe Brown Swans
The mounting losses from mortgage papers forced financial institutions to raise capital. While capital inflows seem to be healthy the dangerous trend is developing. (continued…)
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